The GRA Sacramento Branch is joining
UC Davis to present:
Starting from the Problem
and Working Backwards
John Doherty, Ph.D.
Director of Watermark Numerical Commerical Computing
Professor at the National Center for Groundwater Research and Training Flinders University, Australia
PRESENTATION:
Many groundwater models are commissioned and built under the premise that real world systems can be accurately simulated on a computer - especially if the simulator has been “calibrated” against historical behavior of that system. This premise ignores the fact that natural processes are complex at every level, and that the properties of systems that host them are heterogeneous at every scale. Models are, in fact, defective simulators of natural processes. Furthermore, the information content of datasets against which they are calibrated is generally low.
The laws of uncertainty tell us that a model cannot tell us what will happen in the future. It can only tell us what will NOT happen in the future. The ability of a model to accomplish even this task is compromised by a myriad of imperfections that accompany all attempts to simulate natural systems, regardless of the superficial complexity with which a model is endowed. This does not preclude the use of groundwater models in decision-support. However, it does require smarter use of models than that which prevails at the present time.
It is argued that, as an industry, we need to lift our game as far as decision-support modeling is concerned. We must learn to consider models as receptacles for environmental information rather than as simulators of environmental systems. At the same time, we must acknowledge the defective nature of models as simulators of natural processes, and refrain from deploying them in a way that assumes simulation integrity. We must foster the development of modelling strategies that encapsulate prediction-specific complexity supported by complexity-enabling simplicity. Lastly, modelers must be educated in the mathematics and practice of inversion, uncertainty analysis, data processing, management optimization, and other numerical methodologies so that they can design and implement modeling strategies that process environmental data in the service of optimal environmental management.
SPEAKER BIO:
John Doherty, Ph.D., is the author of PEST, a software package that is widely used for groundwater model calibration and uncertainty analysis. He has worked for more than 35 years in the water industry, first as an exploration geophysicist and then as a modeler. Doherty been employed by both government and industry and has also worked at numerous universities where he undertook research and supervised postgraduate students. Currently he works for his own company, Watermark Numerical Computing, doing consulting, research, programming, and education, mainly on issues related to model deployment in support of environmental management and impact assessment.
AGENDA:
Presentation - 4:00-5:00 p.m.
Reception - 5:00-6:00 p.m.
Light refreshments will be served at the reception, following the presentation.
MEETING COSTS AND RSVP:
MEETING COSTS:
FREE Event!
(registration ends at noon, Friday 3/22/2019)
There is no cost for this meeting but registration is advised. Room capacity is limited to 100, including students, so please register early. Late registration will be limited and walk-in attendees may be turned away. Using GRA’s automated RSVP process is quick and painless!
If you need to cancel your registration, please notify Rodney Fricke by Noon on Wednesday, March 20th (phone 916-407-8539 or email: rodneyafricke@gmail.com).
If you have questions about the meeting, please telephone Rodney Fricke at 916-407-8539 or email him at rodneyafricke@gmail.com. For questions about Sacramento Branch in general, including submittal of your ideas and/or desires for future presentations, please telephone Linda Bond at (530) 757-1500 or email her at Linda.Bond@water.ca.gov.
Parking:
Visitor parking is $9. The permit kiosk takes quarters, dollar bills, five dollar bills and Visa and Mastercard credit cards. There is large parking structure across the street from the Mondavi Center, a block from the Alumni Center. Permit parking is enforced Monday through Friday, 7 a.m. – 10 p.m.
ANNOUNCING SCHOLASTIC SPONSORSHIP OPPORTUNITIES:
All Proceeds to Benefit Science Students
The GRA Sacramento Branch has a history of supporting university-level science students. Our Scholastic Sponsorship Program is an opportunity to publicize your business while contributing toward a good cause. The cost is minimal; if interested, please contact Michael Bombard at (916) 514-4458 or Michael.Bombard@ghd.com.
UPCOMING MEETINGS & EVENTS:
April 10th: Dr. Laura J. Crossey, Department of Earth & Planetary Sciences at the University of New Mexico, GSA Birdsall-Dreiss Distinguished Lecturer, Chemistry and Geoscience Education at Grand Canyon and Beyond: Who Knew Groundwater Hydrology Could Be So Complicated?
May 8th: Deborah Green, AEG-GSA 2018-2019 Richard H. Jahns Distinguished Lecturer in Applied Geology, Let’s Talk: A Conversation on How We Communicate about Science
June 12th: David Santino, Esq., Senior Staff Counsel, California Department of Water Resources, The Disconnect Between Groundwater Legal Systems and Groundwater Hydrology: What Changes Should Be Made to Groundwater Law to Better Reflect the Physical Environment? (GRA David Keith Todd Lecturer with outreach to UC Davis)
Coming this Fall: California Regulatory Panel, State Board and DTSC, Emerging Issues