San Francisco Bay Branch Meeting - "Potential Mid-Century Climate Change Impacts on Water Supplies in California"

The San Francisco Bay Branch is pleased to present:

 "Potential Mid-Century Climate Change Impacts on Water Supplies in California"

Speaker: Brianna Pagán

Ph.D Student in Hydrology and Water

Wednesday, November 16th


The Southwestern United States has a greater vulnerability to climate change impacts on water security due to a reliance on snowmelt driven imported water. In one of the most expensive and detailed regional climate modeling efforts, enabled by the fastest supercomputer (Titan) in the United States, we take an integrative high-resolution ensemble modeling approach to examine near term climate change impacts on all major imported and local sources of water supply to California. While annual precipitation is projected to remain the same or slightly increase, rising temperatures result in a shift towards more rainfall, reduced cold season snowpack and earlier snowmelt. Associated with these hydrological changes are substantial increases in the frequency and the intensity of both drier conditions and flooding events. The 50-year extreme daily maximum precipitation and runoff events are 1.5–6 times more likely to occur depending on the water supply basin. Simultaneously, a clear deficit in total annual runoff over mountainous snow generating regions like the Sierra Nevada is projected. On one hand, the greater probability of drought decreases imported water supply availability. On the other hand, earlier snowmelt and significantly stronger winter precipitation events pose increased flood risk requiring water releases from control reservoirs, which may potentially decrease water availability outside of the wet season. Lack of timely local water resource expansion coupled with projected climate changes and population increases may leave the area in extended periods of shortages.


Speaker Bio:  

Brianna Pagán graduated from California State University Long Beach with a B.S. in Environmental Science & Policy and completed her Master of Science in Engineering in Civil and Water Resources Engineering at Loyola Marymount University. As part of her research, Brianna studies potential climate change impacts on the hydrological cycle in the Western United States and works to provide practical solutions to potential adverse effects on water supply. She previously worked at the Long Beach Water Department in Conservation and Planning, aiding in reducing water consumption for commercial users and developing a water budget based rate structure. Brianna is currently working towards her Ph.D. in Hydrology and Water Resources at UCLA. She is also the Urban Water Use Efficiency Fellow for the recently started California Data Collaborative, an initiative that works to create a modern data infrastructure for water managers throughout the state.



6:30 - 7:30 p.m. - Dinner and Announcements
7:45 - 8:30 p.m. - Keynote Speaker
8:30 - 8:45 p.m. - Questions and Answers



Grilled Herb Chicken
Chicken breast sautéed and topped with fresh
herbs and lemon butter sauce, served with roasted
red potatoes and steamed vegetables
Baked Salmon
Filet of boneless pacific salmon baked and topped
with cucumber dill sauce, served with wild rice and
steamed vegetables
Indian Curry Stir-Fry
Fresh garden salad; fresh vegetables
sautéed in garlic and topped with a
mango curry sauce, served with steamed
rice and grilled tofu


CANCELLATION POLICY: GRA will accept cancellations with no charge until 12:00 PM (Noon) on Friday, November 11, 2016. At that time, we must submit a final head count and we will be charged accordingly. If you cancel after that time, or are a no-show, we will ask you to pay the cost of your meal(s). Thank you for your cooperation.



GRA San Francisco Bay Branch is interested in supporting university science students. Our Scholastic Sponsorship Program is an opportunity to publicize your business while contributing toward a good cause. Your sponsorship will be acknowledged in the announcement, at the meeting, and space will be provided for a small display and brochures. Please contact Abigail Madrone at or at 530-756-5905 for details.

If you have any announcements or questions, please contact the Branch President, John McHugh ( at 510-459-0474, or Branch Treasurer David W. Abbott ( at 510-928-4543.

We are actively looking for potential speakers. If you have a topic or suggestion, please contact the Branch President, John McHugh ( at 510-459-0474




Wed, Nov. 16, 2016
5:30 p.m. - 8:45 p.m.

Event has ended


Biltmore Hotel & Suites
2151 Laurelwood Road
Santa Clara, California 95054